FORECASTING INDIA’S GDP USING ARIMA: FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO INDIA’S GROWTH

Abstract

India is poised to reach the ambitious target of becoming a USD 5 trillion economy by 2027 and become the third largest economy of the world by 2032. This trajectory is fuelled by a youthful population, a burgeoning middle class, and robust digital infrastructure. Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, has built his global image with political astuteness, emphasising multilateralism and the rule of law. However, in a world, where nationalism, egotism and authoritarianism are on the rise, India faces a challenging task as a global leader in maintaining world peace, contain global wars and coax others countries to play by the book. India may need to recalibrate its foreign policy in order to align its global political ambitions with its growing economic targets. This paper looks at the factors that have contributed to India’s economic growth and its growing international stature. ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) technique has been applied to forecast the GDP growth rates of India until 2035. India is projected to reach a GDP of USD 7 trillion during this period. The paper concludes that with economic growth, India is also likely to increase its influence as a global leader.