Demographic Analysis of Traffic Accidents in Tehran from 2001 to 2011

Abstract

The World Health Organization has identified 100 factors contributing to road accidents and predicts that injuries from accidents will increase by about 65% between 2000 and 2020. According to Article 163 of Iran's Five-Year Development Plan, traffic fatalities on the country's roads should decrease by 10% annually. However, this study shows that urban traffic fatalities have increased from 800 in 2001 to 1,400 in 2007, with an estimated 4,000 fatalities projected for 2021. Given the recent increase in urban vehicle accidents in Iran, the main objective of this research was to conduct a demographic analysis of accidents in Tehran during the 2000s. Data collection methods utilized demographic techniques and multiple levels of population refinement to extract relevant tables. Over 2,000 documents were examined over 10 years in a panel study format. Information was gathered through comprehensive review and analysis of all documents and statistics, which were then summarized and indexed. Findings indicate that Tehran's urban accidents account for over 40% of all urban accidents nationwide across various categories including fatalities, injuries, and property damage. With increasing vehicle traffic and daily urban travel, the number of accidents in this city is likely to double in the next decade. If current accident trends continue, considering the growth rate of fatal accidents, we will see an increase from 900 accidents in 2009 to 2,000 in 2021. Meanwhile, injury-causing accidents are projected to rise from 23,000 in 2009 to over 100,000 during the 2010s.